home › event - long bets


Long Bets
PARC Forum

25 April 2002
George E. Pake Auditorium at PARC

about PARC forum


Predictions abound these days -- approaching blizzard intensity -- but the quality of our long-term thinking seems not to be increasing accordingly. Suppose we could: make predictions accountable; make the accountability competitive and fun; and make the whole process pay for itself? It's being attempted by The Long Now Foundation with a spinoff called Long Bets. The rules are: minimum bet is $1,000; minimum period is 2 years; odds are always even, and all bets have a win/lose outcome; bets must be societally or scientifically important; each bettor must name a charity to receive potential winnings and write a detailed argument in support of the bet. The Long Bets Foundation will grow the stakes over the term of the bet (using half the growth to support the process) and publicize the eventual outcome, then raising the question in public, "What can be learned from this bet." Play at http://www.longbets.org/.


Stewart Brand is co-founder of: All Species Foundation, Long Bets Foundation, The Long Now Foundation, Global Business Network, The WELL, Hackers' Conference, New Games Tournament, Whole Earth Catalog. He is author of: THE CLOCK OF THE LONG NOW; HOW BUILDINGS LEARN; THE MEDIA LAB; TWO CYBERNETIC FRONTIERS.


upcoming events   view all 

PARC Innovation Lab: A Blueprint for Innovation Leadership
Jeremy Clark, James Glasnapp
16 September 2014 - 17 September 2014
PARC | Palo Alto, CA

New Startup Showcase
Sylvia Smullin
17 September 2014
Conferences & Talks  

AI and Robotics at an Inflection Point
Steve Omohundro
18 September 2014 | George E. Pake Auditorium, PARC
PARC Forum  

Digital Diagnosis - Harnessing Digital Technology to Improve Personal Health
Ashwin Ram
23 September 2014 - 23 September 2014
Conferences & Talks