‘Sell Now!’ The End of the Housing Bubble



George E. Pake Auditorium 2006-04-27



‘Sell Now!’ The End of the Housing Bubble

John Talbott is an ex-Goldman Sachs investment banker, and his book reflects it. Sell Now

  • The End of the Housing Bubble is a data-driven and analysis-rich thesis that convincingly debunks all the current theories that— at least on face value— provide a rationale for our recent boom in housing prices. These seemingly common-sense theories include such popular ideas as:

    - Housing prices have always gone only one way— particularly here in the Bay Area— and that's up, up, and up...so that's the only way they are likely to go in the future.

    - Immigration and population growth have been supporting house prices and will continue to fuel house price increases.

    - Tax benefits make it cheaper and smarter to own than rent.

    - Zoning restrictions are a key reason why prices have stayed up and will continue to stay high in areas such as San Francisco.

    - Housing can't go down as long as the economy remains strong.

    - People have to live somewhere, and this will keep prices rising or at least stable.

    - Construction costs cause home price increases.

    - Home prices are higher because incomes are higher

    - Finally— and one many local buyers cling to— there is a limited supply of real estate here in the Bay Area.

    The data and analysis give unexpected answers to each of these. Talbott will also discuss what he believes is the real cause of the housing bubble...and no, it's not "irrational buyers."

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